By MJ Vara
Please don't hate me -- agree or disagree.
I have been very judicious in considering the whole Biden withdrawing thing. Here is my thinking (short version -- believe it or not):
The night of the debate I could not watch -- I posted a self-created meme here saying so and also sent it to my kids (it said: I can't watch — lmk if we crash-and-burn).
A few minutes later my daughter texted me : “We are crashing and burning.”
Why did I not watch the debate?
First I was shocked by the poor choice of Biden calling/accepting an early debate (earliest ever), with no audience to energize him, and with CNN controlling/shutting off mics.
WTF?!
The key to having Trump self-implode is the same one his supporters think is a winning strategy (it's not -- not with independents, anyway):
LET TRUMP BE TRUMP!
Trump is a sociopath -- life-long undiagnosed and untreated pathologies -- and he is nearly 80, walks oddly, stands oddly, uses fake hair and bronzer and teeth and is uneducated, ill-informed, and likely has early dementia (perseverates about windmills and sharks ad nauseam-- a sure sign).
Mics off ruins this.
Even before the debate I thought Biden and his team simply were incapable of calling Trump out forcefully.
Trump uses the rhetorical technique called Brandolini's Law (only law he adheres to — Google it…there’s a Wikipedia article).
Trump seeks to overwhelm with bullying, bravado, stupidity, and bullshit.
Anyone debating such a person MUST PUSH BACK sharply, smartly, mercilessly, FORCEFULLY — and stick to only a handful of issues/rebuttals and REPEAT those again-and-again — drive them home...not get caught in "whack-a-mole" or fall into rhetorical traps, etc.
It takes great skill --- and great ENERGY — to debate this asshole.
You must bloody a bully's nose. Period (not his ear).
You must humiliate and trigger Trump (should be easy) and not let him get away with shit — and block his use of Brandolini's Law.
I knew Biden was both too low-energy (in a consistent manner) and too decent a man to get in there with Trump -- like in a boxing match.
But, I waited to see how things would unfold in the following days and was pleased with Biden's kick-ass speech the next day.
However, while he does NOT have dementia and has always been gaff-prone and his childhood stutter emerges occasionally but says nothing about the man -- President Biden has lost something that has been important since JFK -- since the TV era: PRESENTATION.
JFK had both the appearance and the substance -- Reagan was master of appearance and stagecraft (not so much substance -- maybe conservative substance, I suppose).
I love Biden's substance -- and I don't care about appearances.
But guess what? The American public care tremendously about appearances -- too much, but to some degree that is justified.
President Biden's interviews/speeches the last couple of weeks have been a very mixed bag -- substance/policy = A+++...but presentation has been uneven with major gaffs (like confusing people's names with others, etc) These CAN BE seen as a sign of dementia (I do not believe it is in Biden's case).
Also: Biden, justly or not, has lost the narrative: there is a cascading daily call for him to withdraw, and increasingly by more mature/powerful Dems.
I have spoken with young people around my complex, pool, area parks, etc. (trying not to seem creepy, lol) -- some are well-informed (and thus progressive), some ill-informed (but fearing/hating Trump).
Universally, including my kids (all 18-23) who WILL vote for Biden if he is on ballot in November, they are either unaware of Biden's many progressive accomplishments the last four years (my kiddos are aware) and/or simply feel uninspired/unexcited or very worried about the President's presentation (my kiddos).
I believe in Professor Allan Lichtman's model of "13 Keys to the White House" -- he has been right 9-out-of-10 presidential elections since 1984 (wrong only 2000 -- and everyone knows that election really was stolen from Gore -- at the very least so many glitches like the "butterfly ballot" in Pam Beach County Fl. messed it up -- so, I'd say Lichtman is 10-for-10.)
Litchman says it would be a mistake for Biden to withdraw -- he has majority the of the 13 keys (I forget how many).
One of the most important keys?
INCUMBENCY.
I am with Lichtman.
But, Litchman also says (and I thought of this before he stated it) that if Biden does withdraw he MUST resign and hand the incumbency to Kamala Harris.
I am -- as of now -- for this.
First, Biden would conclude his amazing legacy with being instrumental in positioning Harris as the first female President of the United States.
Second, PRESIDENT Harris would create unity and excitement again within the Dem party -- especially bringing back or engaging young people for the first time.
Third: arrogant Trump believes -- and he is unfortunately increasingly right -- that he can beat Biden and wants Biden to be the nominee (he is worried about a replacement).
PRESIDENT Harris will throw a massive monkey wrench into Trump's campaign.
It will even mess up their expectations DAY ONE: Trump hats, flags, banners, letterheads, and even his official "Agenda 47" (just another Project 2025) have to be redone…”47” is lost to them.
Yes, Trump can still hope to win BUT: he will not "sandwich-in" Biden (as Bushes did Clinton) — something he longs for; and he will NOT be the 47th POTUS.
PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS would be the 47th President of the United States -- win or lose!
That's it.
Thanks for reading.
MJ Vara
Sent from my iPhone
